Gold rose about 0.4% in spot trading to $4,010.51 an ounce on Monday morning, October 26, while U.S. gold futures also climbed by the same percentage to $4,024, benefiting from falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The recovery followed a 4% weekly loss, the largest since June. reuters.com
Brent crude fell nearly 2% to around $114.50 a barrel as diplomatic efforts intensified to contain regional tensions. Meanwhile, the dollar index held steady near 101.65, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped to 4.967%. These movements helped ease immediate pressure on gold, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing asset. reuters.com
Investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged this week, while CME data cited by Reuters indicates a 77% probability of a December rate hike. The U.S. personal income and expenditure report, including the September personal consumption expenditures price index, is due on October 29. Both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Commerce Department have officially confirmed these dates. reuters.com
For metals, holding above $4,000 is an initial sign that gold is stabilizing after last week's decline, but it does not on its own confirm a short-term trend reversal. Silver rose 0.6% during the same trading session and could benefit from a quieter dollar and lower yields, though it remains more sensitive than gold to forecasts of industrial activity. reuters.com
Over the coming sessions, the most important indicators will be the direction of Brent crude, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, the dollar index, the Federal Reserve statement, US inflation data, and any official confirmation regarding Saudi energy facilities. A continued decline in oil prices and yields could support the stability of metals, while a confirmed oil disruption could lead to a more complex mix of safe-haven demand and inflationary and interest rate pressures.
